重新评级:50 强矿业公司估值飙升至 2 万亿美元以上

截至第四季度末,MINING.COM 全球最有价值矿商 50 强*排名的总市值为 2.17 万亿美元,到 2025 年将增加 8920 亿美元,令人震惊。

大部分涨幅是在下半年积累的,经过三年的停滞,采矿和金属的市场估值似乎终于赶上了其他板块。 全球工业经济的组成部分终于看到了它们的本质:至关重要。

从口头上(甚至不是),西方政府(尤其是美国)现在正在向采矿业投入资金,追赶中国自世纪之交以来成功采用的竞争战略。

该排名基于公司在其主要交易所以当地货币计算的市值,然后转换为美元,因此今年美元近两位数的跌幅为股票和大宗商品价格提供了一定支撑。但对该行业的重新评级早就该进行了。

前 50 名价值上涨 70% 的大部分功劳可以归功于贵金属价格和铜的上涨,但涨幅是广泛的,甚至旧经济铁矿石和备受诟病的锂也加入了这一行列,尽管姗姗来迟。

表现最好的榜单上有黄金和白银股,其中包括由墨西哥佩尼奥尔斯控制的在伦敦上市的白银矿商弗雷斯尼洛(Fresnillo),其股价上涨了五倍,在经历了多年的进进出出后,现在已经巩固了其在排名中的位置。

Coeur Mining 的命运证明了今年上榜竞争的激烈程度。在 9 月底首次进入前 50 名后,这家总部位于芝加哥的白银和黄金矿商在第四季度表现平平,尽管其价值在 2025 年增长了两倍多,但跌出了排名。

除了所有贵重和廉价的东西之外,稀土是 2025 年最引人注目的故事。第三季度末,珀斯的莱纳斯稀土公司 (Lynas Rare Earth) 跻身第 49 位,加入了总部位于拉斯维加斯的 MP Materials 的行列,后者在与五角大楼达成开创性协议后,上半年排名飙升。

MP Materials今年的涨幅仍然超过200%,莱纳斯的涨幅也翻了一番,但这还不够,现在这两家公司都再次跌出了排名,只剩下中国北方稀土(China Northern Rare Earth)像多年来一样代表这17种元素。

取代稀土库存的是全球最大的两家锂生产商。随着供应过剩开始缓解,电池金属价格在第二季度上涨,智利的 SQM 和美国生产商 Albemarle 重返前 50 名,使锂矿商的数量回到了 3 家。

该行业在 2022 年达到顶峰,有 6 只股票上榜,目前排名第 58 位的潭旗锂业很可能会与中国同行赣锋锂业一起,如果锂的上涨趋势持续下去,但像 Minerals Resources 和 Pilbara Minerals(现为 PLS Group)这样的澳大利亚生产商可能会遇到更困难的时期。

自成立以来,MINING.COM 前 50 强一直由两家公司领衔——必和必拓和力拓——它们是唯一市值持续超过 1000 亿美元的矿业公司(时有波动)。现在有五家公司获得此殊荣。

凭借一系列收购,中国龙头企业紫金矿业在升值 127% 后,市值达到 1,240 亿美元,仅击败同样采取积极扩张战略的南方铜业,位居第三,增长 64%,达到 1,190 亿美元。

墨西哥集团 (Grupo Mexico) 在纽约证券交易所上市的矿业公司南方铜业 (Southern Copper) 上个季度与纽蒙特 (Newmont) 一起加入了三位数俱乐部,但与其他收购同行不同的是,在以 170 亿美元吞并澳大利亚纽克雷斯特矿业 (Newcrest Mining) 后不久,总部位于丹佛的纽蒙特 (Newmont) 开始了一项数十亿美元的资产剥离计划。

Agnico Eagle 和 Kirkland Lake Gold 将于 2022 年合并,这家总部位于多伦多的集团将继续增持资产,如果金价继续逆重力上涨,其将成为突破 1000 亿美元大关的候选者。 Agnico 的价值今年翻了一番,达到 863 亿美元。

既然渥太华已经批准了英美资源集团和泰克资源公司的合并,那么英美资源集团和泰克资源公司可能会成为十年来最大的矿业交易,这在很大程度上要归功于英美资源集团承诺将其伦敦总部迁至温哥华。

但扩大到 1000 亿美元的水平可能难以实现。尽管实现了两位数的增长,泰克资源和英美资源集团均跻身年度表现最差企业名单——这再次表明 2025 年的发展是多么的疯狂。

Anglo-Teck 很难以低于 680 亿美元的总价值跻身前十,但将领先于瑞士矿业和大宗商品交易商嘉能可 (Glencore),后者在 2025 年再次表现不佳。

这对 Baar 来说无疑是雪上加霜,该公司几年前曾尝试收购 Teck,但以失败告终,近 15 年后的今天,该公司的股价仍低于 2011 年的 IPO 价格。

NOTES:

Source: MINING.COM, stock exchange data, company reports. Share data from primary-listed exchange on December 30, 2025 close of trading converted to US$ where applicable. Percentage change based on US$ market cap difference, not share price change in local currency.

As with any ranking, criteria for inclusion are contentious. We decided to exclude unlisted and state-owned enterprises at the outset due to a lack of information. That, of course, excludes giants like Chile’s Codelco, Uzbekistan’s Navoi Mining (the gold and uranium giant may list later this year), Eurochem, a major potash firm, and a number of entities in China and developing countries around the world.
Another central criterion was the depth of involvement in the industry, and how far upstream is the bulk of its revenue, before an enterprise can rightfully be called a mining company.

For instance, should smelter companies or commodity traders that own minority stakes in mining assets be included, especially if these investments have no operational component or even warrant a seat on the board? This is a common structure in Asia and excluding these types of companies removed well-known names like Japan’s Marubeni and Mitsui, Korea Zinc and Chile’s Copec.

Levels of operational or strategic involvement and size of shareholding were other central considerations. Do streaming and royalty companies that receive metals from mining operations without shareholding qualify or are they just specialised financing vehicles? We included Franco Nevada, Royal Gold and Wheaton Precious Metals on the basis of their deep involvement in the industry.

Vertically integrated concerns like Alcoa and energy companies such as Shenhua Energy or Bayan Resources where power, ports and railways make up a large portion of revenues pose a problem. The revenue mix also tends to change alongside volatile coal prices. Same goes for battery makers like China’s CATL which is increasingly moving upstream, but where mining will continue to represent a small portion of its valuation.

Another consideration is diversified companies such as Anglo American with separately listed majority-owned subsidiaries. We’ve included Angloplat (now Valterra) to track PGM representation in the ranking but excluded Kumba Iron Ore in which Anglo has a 70% stake to avoid double counting. Similarly, we excluded Hindustan Zinc which is listed separately but majority owned by Vedanta.

With other groups like Mexico’s Penoles where refining and chemicals make up a substantial part of the business where possible the Top 50 would include separately listed operating subsidiaries that are dedicated to mining. This is also why Southern Copper represents Grupo Mexico in the ranking.
Many steelmakers own and often operate iron ore and other metal mines, but in the interest of balance and diversity we excluded the steel industry, and with that many companies that have substantial mining assets including giants like ArcelorMittal, Magnitogorsk, Ternium, Baosteel and many others.

Head office refers to operational headquarters wherever applicable, for example BHP and Rio Tinto are shown as Melbourne, Australia, but Antofagasta is the exception that proves the rule. We consider the company’s HQ to be in London, where it has been listed since the late 1800s.

Please let us know of any errors, omissions, deletions or additions to the ranking or suggest a different methodology: email Frik Els at (email protected) with Top 50 in the subject line.

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